In a sport where fighters are required to engage in brutal physical combat, successful MMA betting requires an advanced combination of modern statistical analysis and fight film knowledge. This complex task is further complicated by the sport’s idiosyncratic nuances, which can often confuse punters and lead them astray. As the sport evolves, so do the ways in which it can be successfully handicapped.
A major factor that many bettors overlook is a fighter’s history inside a given weight class. The inclination to do what’s known as “MMA Math” – comparing the records of two fighters and assuming that because FIGHTER A lost to FIGHTER B, FIGHTER A should beat FIGHTER C – is common, but it can be dangerously misleading. It takes away from the study of fighting styles and the assessment of a fighter’s abilities and vulnerabilities.
Another important consideration when evaluating a fighter is their current health and training regimen. A serious injury or a prolonged period of inactivity can expose exploitable weaknesses in even the best of stars. The best example is ring-rust-riddled Conor McGregor, whose flashy one-shot knockouts enthrall casual fans, but whose limited activity as a result of his contract holdout has made him vulnerable in certain matchups.
Similarly, beware of fighters who have been forced to cut down to their fighting weight. The process of making the weight can be mentally draining and physically challenging, and fighters who are pushed to their limit tend to perform worse in later rounds. This can open the door to profitable wagers on round and fight duration bets.
One of the most popular MMA betting bets is on which competitor will win the first round of a fight. This bet is usually offered at a slightly higher margin than other MMA betting markets and is based on the assumption that most fights will be stopped within the first 15 minutes. A bet on the over/under on significant strikes landed is also a popular option.
Lastly, beware of the risk associated with placing bets on fighters who have had problems making weight. Several fighters have been forced to skip fights as a result of a weight issue and, in some cases, this has led to them being hospitalized or missing a fight entirely. This type of scenario is a major reason why you should always scrutinize the fighter’s medical history prior to placing any bets. Moreover, it is not uncommon for fighters to miss weight due to injuries, and this can lead to a loss of their entire paycheck. This is why it’s crucial to set a budget before you start betting and stick to it. This will help you avoid emotional betting and potentially costly losses. If you want to make the most of your MMA betting experience, then you should also consider placing a parlay bet. This combines multiple bets into a single wager and has a higher payout, but if just one of the bets fails to win, then the entire parlay loses.